Laren, 27 April 2012     *** Ideeen Blog: http://goedbeleggen.wordpress.com/ ***

Stockpicks V Goossens:

Model is ontwikkeld door Victor Goossens, vnl voor lange termijn beleggingen, langer dan 12 maanden, vnl Top kwaliteits bedrijven

Wacht tot rond 20 April 2012 om aan te kopen (Technische analyse van Gann Trader)

		koers					Koers
Datum	Aandeel	bij aan	koers	in %	AEX	relatieve	Doel	in %	Positie	Key points
opname		beveling	29 apr 12			performance
Model;	Preferent				307.1		380	24
15-nov-10	CFE	46.8	43.71	-6.6	342.4	3.7	60	37	ja
18-nov-10	Arseus	10.11	12.73	25.9	346.3	37.2	15	18
18-nov-10	ASMI	17.5	27.09	54.8	346.3	66.1	33	22
18-nov-10	ASML	23.62	38.25	61.9	346.3	73.3	40	5
18-nov-10	Brunel	23.7	35.53	49.9	346.3	61.2	40	13
18-nov-10	Fugro	52.25	55.07	5.4	346.3	16.7	60	9
18-nov-10	Nedap	20.7	25.00	20.8	346.3	32.1	25	0
18-nov-10	Vopak	34.29	48.90	42.6	346.3	53.9	50	2
31-jan-11	Exact	21.06	18.55	-11.9	360.8	3.0	20	8
Gemiddelde:				27.0		38.6
29-feb-12	Accell	16.95	15.99	-5.7	324.45	-0.3	20	25
29-feb-12	Ahold	10.38	9.64	-7.1	324.45	-1.8	12	24
29-feb-12	Besi	5.85	5.98	2.2	324.45	7.6	7	17
29-feb-12	Beter bed	17.5	15.35	-12.3	324.45	-6.9	20	30
29-feb-12	Imtech	25.15	21.55	-14.3	324.45	-9.0	28	30
29-feb-12	Kendrion	20.2	18.50	-8.4	324.45	-3.1	22	19	ja
29-feb-12	Ten Cate	24.42	22.96	-6.0	324.45	-0.6	30	31
29-feb-12	Nutreco	56.26	54.85	-2.5	324.45	2.8	60	9
29-feb-12	RD	27.4	26.81	-2.2	324.45	3.2	30	12
29-feb-12	Sligro	23.24	23.05	-0.8	324.45	4.5	27	17
29-feb-12	Umicore	39.05	40.96	4.9	324.45	10.2	45	10
29-feb-12	Unilever	24.93	26.04	4.5	324.45	9.8	30	15
29-feb-12	Michael page	453.6	427.20	-5.8	324.45	-0.5	530	24
29-feb-12	sipef	65	67.65	4.1	324.45	9.4	80	18
29-feb-12	Grange res	0.67	0.58	-14.2	324.45	-8.8	0.80	39	ja
29-feb-12	BP	492.4	446.35	-9.4	324.45	-4.0	500	12
Gemiddelde totaal:				-4.6		0.8
Dividend rendement
15-nov-10	KPN	10.01	6.86	-31.5	345.3	-20.4	8.5	24		Yield: 7.3 % performance is inclusief dividend !
15-nov-10	Mobistar	41.46	27.16	-34.5	345.3	-23.4	38	40		Yield: 9.9 % performance is inclusief dividend !
31-jan-11	Exact	18.97	18.55	-2.2	360.8	12.7	19	2		Yield: 9.1 % performance is inclusief dividend !
22-mrt-12	Philip morris	86.98	89.81	3.3	360.8	18.1	95	6	ja	Yield: 3.5 % performance is inclusief dividend !
Gemiddelde:				-16.2		-3.3
Grondstoffen
26-sep-10	Goud	1290	1651.00	28.0	337.9	37.1	2000	21
26-sep-10	Zilver	21.2	31.48	48.5	337.9	57.6	40	27
26-sep-10	Olie	76.2	105.40	38.3	337.9	47.4	110	4
Gemiddelde:				38.3		47.4
Andere ideen
27-sep-10	Brazilie EWZ etf	73.9	60.79	-17.7	341.0	-7.8	75	23		*Brazilie groeit gestaag door en TA ziet er goed uit
15-jan-11	Kraft	31.34	39.40	25.7	361.3	40.7	42	7		Buy & Hold, Voor beleggers met weinig tijd. Extra rendement te behalen door het schrijven van calls
15-jan-11	GE	18.82	19.78	5.1	361.3	20.1	23	16		Buy & Hold, Voor beleggers met weinig tijd. Extra rendement te behalen door het schrijven van calls
25-jul-11	Amazon	216	226.85	5.0	337.6	14.1	230	1		http://topbeleggen.wordpress.com/
23-sep-10	Inditex	58.07	68.36	17.7	332.8	25.4	85	24		*Goede trendy betaalbare kleding, H1 2010 netto winst 628m +68% omzet 5500m, hoge netto marge 11.4% ! Triggers; Online verkoop NL, Oostenrijk,Ierland,Belgie en Lux in 2H 2010 en in 2011: VS, Canada,Japan & Z Korea. Ook emerging market play.
19-okt-10	Apple	314.74	603.00	91.6	339.2	101.0	650	8		*Goed aandeel, zie visie:
Gemiddelde:				21.2		32.3
SHORT
22-jul-11	Tom Tom	3.878	3.71	4.4	340.0	14.0	2.5	-33		http://goedbeleggen.wordpress.com/2011/07/22/goed-de-euro-is-gered-nu-de-nog-en-wat-dan/
Eerdere aanbevelingen			price
Datum	Aandeel	koers	verkoop	in %	AEX	relatieve	koers nu		Gesloten op
opname			koers			performance
15-sep-10	Meyer Burger	30.7	28.45	-7.3	342.0	2.9	14.85	-51.6		*H1 boven verwachtingen en banken makkelijker met financieringen in zonne energie
High beta
26-sep-10	Aegon	4.54	4.85	6.8	337.9	15.9	3.60	-11.5	10-jan-11	*Door QE II (verder opkopen van schulden), zullen de reserves van de financials versterkt worden
26-sep-10	Arcelor	24.70	26.55	7.5	337.9	16.6	13.27	-37.2	10-jan-11	*Grondstoffen play, flink gedaalt in 2010
26-sep-10	ASML	21.72	27.35	25.9	337.9	35.0	38.25	85.2	10-jan-11	*Beste in de sector, voorals nog geen afzwakking van de business
26-sep-10	Bam	4.58	4.55	-0.7	337.9	8.4	2.74	-31.1	10-jan-11	*Zeer goedkoop, veel lange termijn opdrachten
26-sep-10	boskalis	30.23	34.00	12.5	337.9	21.6	28.06	1.9	10-jan-11	*Goede fin positie, goedkoop, veel lange termijn opdrachten, infrastruktuur play (meer stimuli te verwachten in deze sector)
26-sep-10	ING	7.89	7.22	-8.5	337.9	0.6	5.39	-22.6	10-jan-11	*Door QE II (verder opkopen van schulden), zullen de reserves van de financials versterkt worden
26-sep-10	dexia	3.23	2.57	-20.4	337.9	-11.3	0.18	-85.3	10-jan-11	*Door QE II (verder opkopen van schulden), zullen de reserves van de financials versterkt worden
26-sep-10	Philips	23.26	23.80	2.3	337.9	11.4	15.27	-25.2	10-jan-11	*High beta play, conservatief gefinancierd
26-sep-10	Nyrstar	9.36	9.72	3.8	337.9	12.9	6.17	-25.0	10-jan-11	*Grondstoffen play
26-sep-10	binck	10.21	12.16	19.1	337.9	28.2	7.28	-19.6	10-jan-11	*Door QE II (verder opkopen van schulden), zullen de reserves van de financials versterkt worden
26-sep-10	asmi	18.45	25.97	40.8	337.9	49.9	27.09	55.9	10-jan-11	*Back end activiteiten veel waard, front end; negatieve waarde, maar business loopt veel beter, ook overname kandidaat
26-sep-10	draka	11.91	17.87	50.0	337.9	59.1	17.87	59.1	10-jan-11	*Goedkoop, verdere verbetering fin positie, nog steeds overnamekandidaat
Gemiddelde:				11.6		20.7		-4.6

Disclaimer

De informatie wordt uitsluitend ter informatie ende vermaak aangeboden en is op generlei wijze bedoeld als advies of aanbieding om effecten of andere financiële instrumenten aan te kopen of te verkopen. Victor Goossens kan echter niet aansprakelijk worden gehouden voor enigerlei schade, verliezen of kosten door inaccurate, incorrecte en/of onvolledige informatie op haar website.

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I started a portfolio at the end of October 2006:

Month	Portfolio	AEX	AEX	Relative	Month	Portfolio	AEX	AEX	Relative
	In %	Index	in %	Performance		In %	Index	in %	Performance
Oct 06		486.6			Jan 10	4.1	323.8	-3.4	7.6
Nov 06	21.8	477.7	-1.8	23.6	Feb 10	1.0	318.3	-1.7	2.8
Dec 06	-2.8	495.3	3.7	-6.5	Mar 10	7.0	344.2	8.2	-1.1
2006:	19.0	495.3	1.8	17.2	Apr 10	-1.1	345.9	0.5	-1.5
Jan 07	6.4	499.8	0.9	5.5	May 10	-2.0	320.7	-7.3	5.2
Feb 07	9.6	490.2	-1.9	11.5	June 10	-4.8	316.8	-1.2	-3.6
Mar 07	0.2	510.5	4.1	-3.9	July 10	1.3	330.6	4.4	-3.0
Apr 07	2.1	530.8	4.0	-1.9	Aug 10	-0.5	316.5	-4.3	3.8
May 07	7.3	540.4	1.8	5.5	Sept 10	3.5	334.4	5.7	-2.2
June 07	3.3	548.2	1.4	1.8	Oct 10	3.4	337.2	0.8	2.5
July 07	-1.1	534.0	-2.6	1.5	Nov 10	6.8	327.4	-2.9	9.7
Aug 07	-2.7	522.7	-2.1	-0.6	Dec 10	9.0	354.6	8.3	0.7
Sep 07	6.5	541.0	3.5	3.0	2010:	27.7	354.6	5.7	22.0
Oct 07	9.4	547.9	1.3	8.2	Jan 11	-3.3	360.8	1.7	-5.1
Nov 07	-7.0	507.6	-7.3	0.4	Feb 11	3.9	369.1	2.3	1.6
Dec 07	1.6	515.8	1.6	0.0	Mar 11	-2.9	365.6	-1.0	-2.0
2007:	35.6	515.8	4.1	31.4	April 11	-3.0	359.9	-1.6	-1.4
Jan 08	-7.4	441.3	-14.4	7.0	May 11	-4.0	349.4	-2.9	-1.1
Feb 08	10.6	446.5	1.2	9.5	June 11	-3.3	339.7	-2.8	-0.5
Mar 08	-9.4	442.4	-0.9	-8.5	July 11	2.8	329.2	-3.1	5.9
Apr 08	-0.3	475.6	7.5	-7.8	Aug 11	-6.4	292.9	-11.0	4.6
May 08	0.9	485.5	2.1	-1.2	Sept 11	-9.2	280.2	-4.4	-4.8
June 08	-2.2	425.9	-12.3	10.1	Oct 11	6.4	307.5	9.8	-3.3
July 08	5.8	400.0	-6.1	11.9	Nov 11	3.2	299.7	-2.5	5.7
Aug 08	0.5	412.8	3.2	-2.7	Dec 11	3.2	311.7	4.0	-0.8
Sep 08	-20.6	331.5	-19.7	-0.9	2011:	-13.6	311.7	-12.1	-1.5
Oct 08	-15.5	267.7	-19.2	3.8	Jan 12	4.7	321.8	3.3	1.5
Nov 08	-5.6	252.6	-5.7	0.0
Dec 08	-4.3	245.9	-2.6	-1.7	2012:	4.7	321.8	3.3	1.5
2008:	-47.5	245.9	-52.3	4.8
Jan 09	7.4	248.6	1.1	6.3
Feb 09	-4.7	219.8	-11.6	6.9
Mar 09	-1.6	217.0	-1.3	-0.3	Total performance	70.1	321.8	-33.9	103.9
Apr 09	9.6	240.8	11.0	-1.3
May 09	5.0	259.5	7.8	-2.8
June 09	-5.2	254.7	-1.8	-3.4	Performance	13.1	% per annum
July 09	15.5	283.2	11.2	4.3
Aug 09	-0.4	296.2	4.6	-5.0
Sep 09	1.4	311.4	5.1	-3.7
Oct 09	-9.8	302.4	-2.9	-6.9
Nov 09	1.7	305.9	1.2	0.5
Dec 09	5.1	335.3	9.6	-4.6
2009:	24.1	335.3	36.3	-12.3

December 2012 Portfolio:

Increased with 3.2 % (Underperforming the AEX with -0.8%) 2011: -13.6% AEX -12.1%

Since inception Oct 2006 +65% (a 102% outperformance to the AEX -36%) or 12.4 % per annum on a weighted average basis.

Cash: 34% of the portfolio. Note these above mentioned performances were made with an average cash position of 28% (so average market exposure has been 72% since Oct 2006)

Winners: Eternel energy +50%, AND +40%, Rampart +33%, Bam +27%, Grange res +23%

Losers: Goldsource -47%, Nautilus -18%, Xemplar -18%, UNG etf -15%, Duluth metals -13%

Exits: Grontmij (part) & Hathor (taken over)

Trades:

Hedging the portfolio with FTI’s result: 1.1% on the portfolio

Initial position taken in:

Increased position in:

Largest positions (in size):, 1.Probe mines, 2.Noront 3.Boskalis, 4.CFE, 5.Amerisur 6.Grange resources 7.Redstar gold, 8.Kendrion 9.Rainy River, 10.Exact, Imtech, Nautilus, Fission Energy, Victoria Gold, VMS Ventures, AMG, Octoplus, BAM, Great Basin Gold, Rockhopper exploration, RPT, AND, UNG ETF, Brasil ETF, Fairstar, Regal Petroleum, Duluth metals, Goldsource mines, Fancamp, Prodigy gold, Crescent point, Fairstar, Celtic minerals, North American Gem

Good money was made on Grange res, Amerisur & Boskalis.

Lost money on Probe mines & Nautilus.

"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime."  Jim Rogers

'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946)

Useful links:  

Daily check: 1.XEA, Middle east, US Stock mkt, (part2) & US mkt analysis 2.TED spread & Euribor 3.Vix index & Market CDS & instit risk analyse 4.Baltic Dry Index(leading indicator worldtrade?) 5.Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq, N225, HK, China & China econ review 6. Bespoke investm & News & Kirk Report 7.Dutch Co News, Latest Recommen, Mktgevoel, DAH, Beursbox,  Columbeurs, & French small cap 8.Dutch mkt (Rob Koenders), FD & Tijd 9.Lebed 10.Oil & Metals + Oil Prices BB 11.GS Research, De Groof & Europe 12.World indices 13.AEX closing prices New York 14.Seeking Alpha Week Weekend TV Financial sense 1.WMZ, Insider trading & FD WMZ & Belgium 2.Co Agenda: Weekly Dutch agenda & FD, dividend agenda, Div plaza & AVA, Europe 3.Macro Agenda: World, Macro, US+,World all,  US,  Briefing(US) 4.Agenda: Briefing Earnings, US earnings, CNBC Calender & Conf calls 5.FT Alpaville 6.UK Weekend fin news & mkts live 7.Interesting items & Zerohedge Financial armageddon	CRB Index & CRB reuters Current Bulls/Bears Sentiment Credit rating banks & companies! News BNR Radio & FD TV 5.Jim Cramer & Recap Economy.com Euler Hermes Credit insurance Trim Tab, US money out/in flows Hedgefunds performances Euro next - Co press releases Co news announcements Daily Dutch news Beursduivel (Belgium) & Kan Z Belgian News, Tijd & Buy/Sell FT Lex Euronext Index of Dutch Companies & Co news Research SNS Shareholders meetings VEB Daily Dutch comments Abnamro comments Fortis comment Dutch market RLT 7 Several newspapers Short view Finance Trends	Prices: Yahoo Finance (prices) & Market Watch Real time AEX Index Graph & News Charts: Stockcharts DFT biggest rise/declines NL Prices all mkts Dutch Options Europe & Nasdaq UK: Daily Telegraph & Agenda Historic prices Technical The technical take dot com Bond charts Bonds & mortgage rates 12. Structured Finance Indices (worst: BBB 07-01) Forex More Indices % changes Indices Debka Macro Neg; Nat Infl Assoc Neg; Shadow stats Economic updates  Raymond James Bureau of labor statistics Chinability Worldwatch Economics BMO fin Group Russian Index	Commodities: Toronto stock exch Commodities Vantage wire (bid/ask prices) Kitko (prices) Stockhouse Agoracom Canadian insider Doug Casey Discovery investing Stockwatch US & Can GATA on Gold $GOLD:$SILVER BNN News Maps renewable energy Kaiser bottomfish Zeal, Macro etc Uranium Oil latest FT US oil reserves Oil - US dept of Energy US Gas prices Global Energy Letter $ - Euro Weer Investment mgmt Top hedgefund Worldview IM
Fondsnieuws Earnings estimates Dutch co's VEB Dutch estimates DFT FD estimates Trivano GURU recommendations Dutch Advice/Ideas Inveztor (stock picking) & Weblog Ype Schaap (Strateeg) Ron Belt (stock picking) Blik op de beurs (1/2 main item pd) Beursblog, Benelux (1/2x p/m) Quotenet (1/2 ideas p/w) FD Beleggen Aandelen blog Vermogensvisie (Leon Hille) Belgische Aandelen Traders Book & add info (tijd) Research de Groof, adviezen Adviezen cash.be div brokers Leleux adviezen Cash.be Belgium & Forum Belgium & US (advice, Smart Cap (1/2 pm) De Tijd Forteon Bel Fin TV Trends.be Analyst.be Belegger Management logs (valuation 1p/m) Management Team; search engine for managers(search; right top) Diverse links & Belgium France: Tradingsat, Boursorama & Challenges Tegenlicht	Advice US & Long Term Insider trading US Stocks 1.Pimco research 1.John Mauldin, Site & Books 1a. Minyanville 1b US stockpick Think Big 2.Streetsmart 3.Inv postcards from cape town 4.BCA Research 5.Prudent bear 6.Jim Sinclair 7. Albert Edwards(Soc Gen)  contrarian 8.Willem Buiter 9.Hussman Funds weekly mkt comment 10.GMO Jeremy Grantham 11.Anthony Bolton Fidelity 12.Bill Fleckenstein 13.Steven Leuthold 14.Nouriel Roubini 15.Jim Rogers & written 16.Soros US Markets in Dutch Richard Russell & Bullish on Gold Trade Radar The street & Jim Cramer Plexus AM US Sentiment World views RGE Monitor US Mkt comments (mkt watch) Bonds Pimco US Bonds Earningswatch Motley Fool (very good on small caps) Big Idea investor Moneychimp(valuation tools & learning) Macro comments Briefing.com *Breaking News Companies* USA Top 12 Analysts Kevins blog Trendwatching (new ideas) Big Picture (US advice)	Dredging Sand & Gravel Middle east is booming Mena report Middle east Construction Stock recommendations Market advices (Europe) Newratings Beursduivel (Europe) FD Latest recommendations Top rec NL (FD),bel,ranglijsten Abnamro Fundamental opinions Beursvisies (Cubi) Aandelen.com Beurs strategie IEX Recommendations Dutch recommendations Recent Changes in stock recommendations Co Databank (European) Us stock picks (smartmoney) Daily Dutch short comment Dutch News Futures update Eurobench Co news (quick search) NU (Economic news) FD News BeursGorilla Financiele Telegraaf MKB Business News Radio Financial Zipp news, also sectors news	News WSJ USA Top news Smartmoney CBS Market watch Reuters CNBC Wall street web in Dutch Barrons Crash Indicator USA market Technology US Gadgets Blogs: Slash & PowerP Leading Technology site (cnet.com) Technology Red Herring Internet outsider Kennislink Bright, new techn
Agenda IEX agenda Benelux (Beursduivel) Belgium Agenda FD agenda   &  Agenda Dividend agenda World agenda All IPO's Hoovers IPO US IPO Calendar	Charts/Tech Analyse Jan van Gemeren & Gann trader Bradley turn dates Chartbook Technical Analyses Technical Analyze Tostrams Techn Analysis Helpful tools Currency converter Language Translator	Dutch news sites (in Dutch) Guru watch Beurs online Beurs IEX Newratings, news on Eur stocks Other Antaurus	China news China business news China Beijing Review Chinese Stockmkt
Influential people Frank Giustra; stories Ed Yardeni	Mutual funds Morningstar (Investm funds) India, India hsbc, ,india ms,hsbc, Turkey	emerging mkt index fund ETF	Yahoo port
Google & i-Google Google Alerts Google Maps Several links	Desktop search StarMine Co webcasts Bloomberg Breaking news	Interesting articles: Focus Change Robert Shiller, negative on house prices (26 March 2006) & June	Booklist: The Rise of a Hungry Nation by James Kynge Sprout Alerts
Paris; great view Excellent restaurant: L' angle de Faubourg Restaurant Kong - nice view Chatelet des Iles (eating outside) Hotel le relais de st Honore	Bar - restaurant (downstairs) Le Cabaret Bar Rest Dance - Barrio Latino Restaurant Chez Laurent - group luncheons Amsterdam: Top Hotel/Apartment (B&B) Amsterdam Centre	Holiday homes FOR RENT SKIING; Chalet Lotus, Switzerland (English) & PRESENTATION Email Photos Australia Other investment links Dutch top Investm links	Option calculator Other Yahoo P Stock screening Turbos Stock picks worldwide Focus Herengracht

Disclaimer:

Informatie:
De informatie in deze email wordt uitsluitend ter informatie ende vermaak aangeboden en is op generlei wijze bedoeld als advies of aanbieding om effecten of andere financiële instrumenten aan te kopen of te verkopen. V Goossens kan echter niet aansprakelijk worden gehouden voor enigerlei schade, verliezen of kosten door inaccurate, incorrecte en/of onvolledige informatie op haar website.

English:

Information made available on this web site (http://victorgoossens.nl) does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to on this web site. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Victor Goossens as of this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable but such information may be neither accurate nor complete. Victor Goossens may buy or sell securities of companies named or described on this web site in the course of regular business. This is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities named or described on this web site. Nothing made available at this web site constitutes financial/business advice.

Additionally, this web site contains forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "Act"). In particular, the words "plan," "confident that," "believe," "expect," "intend to" and similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Act and are subject to the safe harbor created by the Act. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and assume specific industry and general economic conditions. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, market conditions, competitive factors, additional financings and other risks.

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